Washington, D.C., May 14, 2026 — In a recent report published by The Texas Tribune, Nestpoint Managing Director John Thomas weighed in on the final stretch of the Republican Senate runoff between Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, as both campaigns intensify their negative messaging ahead of the May 26 election. The article notes that pro-Cornyn forces have outspent the Paxton side by more than four to one in the runoff, even as available polling continues to suggest a tight race.
The report explains that the spending gap was even wider in the first round, when pro-Cornyn groups spent $69 million, roughly 17 times as much as Paxton and his allies. Yet despite that financial advantage, Paxton has shown little sign of fading. One recent survey cited in the report found that just 7% of voters were undecided, while more than 90% planned to stick with the candidate they backed in round one. That is where Thomas’s analysis comes in.
“Ad spending does not go as far in runoff elections, which tend to draw the most motivated and engaged voters,” Thomas told the Tribune. He added that these voters “probably have strong opinions to care that much to go turn out,” making it especially difficult to shift preferences when both candidates are already so well known.
Thomas also pointed to the increasingly scorched-earth nature of the runoff as a sign that the campaigns may have reached the limits of persuasion on their own behalf. In his view, the strategic goal now is less about growing support than about weakening the other side.
The negative turn, Thomas said, indicates that “the campaigns have determined they can’t move their own numbers, but perhaps they can disqualify the other.”
The article places that dynamic within a larger Republican concern about the cost of the fight and its implications for November. While Democrats hope GOP infighting and heavy spending will leave the eventual nominee damaged, the report suggests that Republican voters remain largely locked in, with only a small share still undecided and most planning to stay with their original choice from round one.
As presented in the report, the runoff has become a test not only of money and message, but of whether either side can break through in an electorate that is already deeply polarized and highly familiar with both candidates. Thomas’s comments frame the race in those terms, suggesting that in a contest this mature and this negative, the real battle is no longer persuasion in the traditional sense, but disqualification, turnout, and attrition.
The full article, “Cornyn and Paxton bury each other in negative ads as Senate GOP runoff enters final stretch,” was published by The Texas Tribune on May 14, 2026. You can read it here.
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