John Thomas Weighs In on Trump’s Midterm Strategy and Key Senate Races on CNN
Washington, D.C., September 2, 2026 — Nestpoint Managing Director John Thomas joined CNN’s The Story Is with Elex Michaelson for a civil political discussion on Republican strategy heading into the midterm elections, with a focus on President Donald Trump’s role in key races and the Senate contests taking shape in Texas and Maine.
Thomas described Trump’s current midterm posture as unusual for a president whose party is in power. Rather than allowing vulnerable Republican candidates to create distance where needed, Thomas said Trump is placing himself at the center of select races where he believes he can help drive turnout.
“The gamble that he’s taking is that he alone can shift the turnout model,” Thomas said. “Polling the snapshot in time only matters if the turnout model holds steady.”
The discussion then turned to Texas, where Trump has endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Senate race. Thomas said Trump’s support could be useful in a state like Texas, but noted that Paxton is already a well-known figure to voters.
“Every voter in the state of Texas knows Ken Paxton, good, bad, and ugly,” Thomas said.
Because of that, Thomas argued that Democrats may have a harder time defining Paxton with new negative information. Instead, he said Paxton’s strategic task is to define his Democratic opponent, James Tallarico, before Tallarico can fully introduce himself to voters.
“What Ken has to do is go negative against James Tallarico,” Thomas said, noting that most Texans do not yet know Tallarico well. “So James is vulnerable to being defined by a Ken Paxton or Donald Trump.”
The panel also discussed Senator Susan Collins and the Maine Senate race. Thomas said Collins faces a more complicated political environment because Trump is not necessarily an asset in Maine the way he may be in more reliably Republican states. Still, he argued that Collins has built a distinct political identity that allows her to separate herself from national party dynamics when necessary.
“Her job is not to be an ideologue,” Thomas said. “Her job is to get things done for her constituents.”
Thomas said Collins can make the case to voters that she agrees with the president at times, disagrees with him at others, and ultimately prioritizes representing Maine. Despite difficult national headwinds, he said he believes Collins remains well-positioned because of her long-standing independent brand.
Across the discussion, Thomas emphasized that the Republican midterm map will depend not only on national polling, but also on turnout, candidate definition, and the state-by-state realities that shape each race. Trump may energize key parts of the Republican base, but the value of his involvement will vary depending on the candidate, the electorate, and the political environment in each state.
The segment originally aired on CNN’s The Story Is with Elex Michaelson on September 2, 2026. You can watch it here.
About Nestpoint
Nestpoint, with a global footprint and a formidable presence in Washington, D.C., is a leading government affairs, finance, and private equity firm. As a strategic ally, Nestpoint transforms challenges into opportunities through its expertise in policy influence, global networks, and financial innovation, delivering customized solutions for sustained client success. Nestpoint advises multibillion-dollar companies in the manufacturing, energy, and technology sectors as well as foreign nations.
