John Thomas Discusses Hegseth, Iran, and GOP Midterm Messaging on CNN
Washington, D.C., September 3, 2026 — In the second part of his appearance on CNN’s The Story Is with Elex Michaelson, Nestpoint Managing Director John Thomas examined President Donald Trump’s midterm messaging strategy, the political impact of the war with Iran, and the administration’s defense of Secretary Pete Hegseth.
The panel first discussed Hegseth’s role and criticism from Senator Thom Tillis. Thomas argued that Hegseth was not brought in to preserve the status quo, but to operate as a change agent inside the Pentagon.
“If you look at it by the numbers, I think Secretary Hegseth has done a good job,” Thomas said, pointing to recruitment gains and arguing that the disagreements around Hegseth appear concentrated more at the management level than among rank-and-file troops.
Thomas said much of the internal tension appears to stem from competing views over how the military should adapt, including Hegseth’s push toward greater use of drones and emerging technology. While some figures inside the Pentagon may resist that direction, Thomas said President Trump is unlikely to view those disagreements as a problem if Hegseth is carrying out the change-oriented role he was chosen to play.
The conversation then turned to the war with Iran and its effect on Republican campaign strategy. Thomas said the conflict creates political challenges for Trump because he did not campaign as a wartime president.
“It’s a little antithetical to his brand,” Thomas said.
While acknowledging that the war is unpopular, Thomas said the larger concern from a campaign standpoint is not only the war itself, but the way it distracts voters and the president from the core economic message Republicans want to emphasize.
“What concerns me as a strategist is not the popularity of the war or yes or no,” Thomas said. “It is that it distracts the American people and President Trump from staying on message, which is talking about what he’s trying to do to help everyday Americans on the economy and things that matter to them on a day-to-day basis.”
That concern carried into the discussion of Trump’s midterm advertising and his message to voters to “pretend” he is on the ballot. Thomas said the strategy reflects Trump’s belief that he can personally change the turnout model by driving more Republicans to the polls.
According to Thomas, the early ads are designed to strengthen Trump’s numbers with his base and increase intensity among Republican voters. He noted that while Republicans may still support the president, even a decline in enthusiasm can matter in close races.
“Correct. But that 10% is meaningful,” Thomas said. “So these ads are trying to gin up the intensity of President Trump’s base.”
Thomas also said paid advertising gives the campaign one important advantage: discipline. While Trump’s public focus can move across multiple topics, paid ads allow the campaign to return to a more controlled message centered on economic concerns.
“The good news about paid ads is they’re on message,” Thomas said.
Throughout the segment, Thomas’s analysis focused on the same strategic question: whether Trump can energize the Republican base without losing focus on the issues most likely to matter to voters in competitive races. For Republicans, the challenge is not only turnout, but message discipline — keeping attention on the economy while navigating foreign policy, personnel disputes, and the risks of making the midterms too much about Trump himself.
The segment originally aired on CNN’s The Story Is with Elex Michaelson on September 3, 2026. You can watch it here.
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