John Thomas Analyzes California Governor’s Race and Los Angeles Mayor’s Race on The John Phillips Show

Washington, D.C., September 29, 2026 — Nestpoint Managing Director John Thomas joined The John Phillips Show to discuss the latest dynamics in California politics, including the governor’s race between Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton and the Los Angeles mayor’s race involving Karen Bass and Nithya Raman.

The interview opened with the upcoming California gubernatorial debate, where Hilton is expected to face Becerra in what the show described as Becerra’s only accepted in-person debate of the general election. Thomas said Becerra’s low-profile approach appears to reflect a deliberate strategy by his campaign team to minimize risk and keep the race from becoming overly focused on Becerra as an individual candidate.

“They simply want this to be an R versus D contest,” Thomas said. “And if that’s how it holds, Becerra wins.”

Thomas argued that Becerra’s team appears to understand the candidate’s strengths and weaknesses, choosing to limit exposure and bring him forward late enough in the race to blunt criticism that he has avoided public scrutiny. From Thomas’s perspective, that may be a politically rational strategy, but it also raises questions about how a Becerra administration would operate if elected.

Thomas said a Becerra governorship would likely be more staff-driven and heavily influenced by major political constituencies, including public employee unions, large donors, and the Democratic Party. He contrasted that with Governor Gavin Newsom, whom he described as a more politically active executive with his own priorities.

“California is facing some incredibly large challenges that require leadership,” Thomas said.

The conversation also turned to crisis management and whether California would have clear executive leadership in the event of a major emergency. Thomas said he was concerned that decision-making in such a scenario could be shaped by whichever political interests hold the most influence with the governor, rather than by the state’s most urgent needs.

The second half of the interview focused on the Los Angeles mayor’s race. Discussing a recent poll showing Nithya Raman leading Karen Bass, Thomas said Raman appears positioned to benefit from Bass’s unfavorable numbers, especially if undecided or anti-incumbent voters remain dissatisfied with the mayor.

Thomas also discussed the role of voters who previously supported Spencer Pratt, noting that both candidates face challenges in appealing to that bloc. He said Raman may calculate that some of those voters will support anyone other than Bass, while Bass may be hesitant to move too far toward the center out of concern that she could lose support on the left.

Asked what Bass should do to close the gap, Thomas said the race may come down less to persuasion and more to voter mobilization.

“It’s probably going to come down to turnout,” Thomas said.

He argued that Bass would need to increase her share of voice, potentially through outside spending, while also focusing heavily on door-knocking, phone banking, texting, and coalition turnout. Still, Thomas said Bass may face a difficult challenge if voters have already made up their minds about her record as mayor.

The segment closed with a discussion of whether Bass could make a concrete offer to Pratt-aligned voters, such as a governance or oversight commitment, in order to win their support. Thomas said such an effort could be worth trying, but added that transferring those voters may be harder for an incumbent whose critics were motivated largely by dissatisfaction with her existing record.

Across the interview, Thomas framed both races as tests of candidate strategy and coalition management. In the governor’s race, the question is whether a low-profile campaign can avoid risk without raising concerns about leadership. In the LA mayor’s race, the challenge is whether an incumbent facing voter dissatisfaction can expand turnout and rebuild enough support to survive a difficult political environment.

The segment originally aired on The John Phillips Show on September 29, 2026. You can listen to it here.

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About Nestpoint

Nestpoint, with a global footprint and a formidable presence in Washington, D.C., is a leading government affairs, finance, and private equity firm. As a strategic ally, Nestpoint transforms challenges into opportunities through its expertise in policy influence, global networks, and financial innovation, delivering customized solutions for sustained client success. Nestpoint advises multibillion-dollar companies in the manufacturing, energy, and technology sectors as well as foreign nations.