Adapted from an article originally published by The Cipher Brief

As international focus sharpens on Iran amid escalating Israeli airstrikes and growing internal unrest, Nestpoint Managing Director John Thomas offered a sobering yet strategic perspective on what it would take to bring down the Islamic Republic. His insights were featured in a recent Cipher Brief analysis titled “What Would It Take to End the Regime in Iran?” by war correspondent Hollie McKay.

Thomas described the Iranian regime as “a steel vault of clerical control,” emphasizing that true change would require far more than public dissent. “Only an economic stranglehold and a youth-fueled revolt too fierce to quell can break its grip,” he stated. According to Thomas, sanctions targeting oil revenues and banking systems must be relentless, while internal fractures—particularly within the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—are essential to weakening the regime’s core.

He dismissed the notion of reform as “a fantasy” while the IRGC remains unified, underscoring the need to “split their ranks or cripple their command” to pave the way for a legitimate opposition movement.

The Cipher Brief’s report explored both historical and current dynamics shaping Iran’s resilience: from the brutal suppression of past revolts to the challenges of coordinating international messaging and support. Yet despite these obstacles, Thomas’s analysis points to a convergence of economic, geopolitical, and generational forces that could eventually turn the tide.

As Nestpoint continues to advise on some of the world’s most complex political environments, Thomas’s commentary reinforces the firm’s commitment to strategic clarity and principled engagement in shaping global policy outcomes.

Read the full article by Hollie McKay in The Cipher Brief here.

About Nestpoint

Nestpoint, with a global footprint, and a formidable presence in Washington, D.C., is a leading government affairs, finance and private equity firm. As a strategic ally, Nestpoint transforms challenges into opportunities through its expertise in policy influence, global networks, and financial innovation, delivering customized solutions for sustained client success. Nestpoint advises multibillion-dollar companies in the manufacturing, energy, and technology sectors as well as foreign nations.