Nestpoint’s John Thomas Weighs Midterm Strategy and U.S. Posture Toward Iran on BBC News

Washington, D.C., January 13, 2026 — Nestpoint Managing Director John Thomas appeared on BBC News to assess the Trump administration’s evolving domestic messaging ahead of the midterm elections and to evaluate U.S. strategic considerations amid sustained protests in Iran.

Discussing President Trump’s renewed focus on affordability, Thomas framed the shift as a recognition that domestic economic pressures will determine electoral outcomes far more than foreign policy achievements. He emphasized that voters are likely to judge the administration on tangible cost-of-living issues, including prices, energy costs, and household credit conditions. “Those are the things that American voters are going to make their decision based upon whether or not the Republicans hold power,” Thomas said, underscoring the centrality of affordability to the midterm cycle.

Thomas cautioned against interpreting moderating inflation data as a political reprieve, noting the historical headwinds facing the party in power during midterms. While acknowledging record levels of foreign investment linked in part to the administration’s tariff strategy, he stressed that the economic benefits of onshoring and expanded domestic production will take time to reach consumers. The central risk, he argued, is whether voters will feel relief quickly enough—particularly on housing availability, interest rates, and energy prices—to remain patient through the election cycle.

Turning to Iran, Thomas addressed the scale and persistence of the protest movement, suggesting that U.S. rhetoric has helped sustain momentum among demonstrators. He argued that American signaling has shaped public expectations on the ground. “I think that the Iranian people feel that Trump will have their back,” Thomas said, noting that protests have continued despite reports of violent repression by the regime.

Thomas also outlined the constraints facing U.S. policymakers, balancing support for democratic movements abroad with domestic opposition to prolonged military engagement. He suggested that any U.S. involvement would likely remain limited and targeted, reflecting a preference for strategic pressure rather than sustained intervention.

Throughout the discussion, Thomas offered a pragmatic assessment of both domestic political risk and foreign policy leverage, reinforcing Nestpoint’s focus on the intersection of electoral dynamics, economic policy, and geopolitical strategy.

The discussion originally aired on BBC News on January 13, 2026 and can be viewed here.

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