Washington, D.C., January 14, 2026 — In a report published by The New York Sun, John Thomas, Managing Director and Co-Founder of Nestpoint Associates, offered a blunt assessment of why Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has remained intact despite sustained unrest and rising pressure on the regime.

The Sun report examines a central question shaping global expectations around Iran’s protest movement: why the defections that often precede regime collapse have not materialized at scale. The article notes that Iran’s leadership has spent decades building overlapping security structures designed to prevent the kind of military rebellion that toppled the Shah in 1979.

Thomas argued that the IRGC’s staying power is rooted less in conventional military discipline than in the incentives and enforcement mechanisms embedded into the system. “The IRGC hasn’t defected en masse because it’s a self-sustaining mafia with billions in black-market wealth, oil profits, and total control over repression,” Thomas told The New York Sun. “In short, they are paid mercenaries. Loyalty is bought with money and enforced by fear.”

He further suggested that cracks in IRGC cohesion, if they emerge, are more likely to come from shifts in internal leverage than from public pressure alone. “Until the cash runs dry or the leadership is systematically eliminated, the ranks will hold,” Thomas asserted, adding, “So far, the money hasn’t dried up.”

Thomas’s remarks reflect Nestpoint’s focus on strategic clarity in volatile geopolitical environments—grounding public debate in the realities of power, incentives, and regime durability.

The original article, “Why Iran’s Most Powerful Military Force Refuses To Abandon the Regime” was published by The New York Sun on January 14, 2026.

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