Washington, D.C., June 3, 2026 — In a recent interview on The John Phillips Show, Nestpoint Managing Director John Thomas previewed election night in California, offering a broad assessment of the governor’s race, the Los Angeles mayor’s race, and the deeper political currents shaping both contests. His analysis suggested that while Democrats still appear structurally favored in California, the state’s political landscape remains unusually unsettled, with weak candidates, fractured coalitions, and visible voter dissatisfaction.

On the governor’s race, Thomas said Xavier Becerra appeared best positioned to take the top slot, while Steve Hilton looked increasingly likely to emerge as the leading Republican. At the same time, he argued the race continued to expose a deeper problem for California Democrats, namely that even in a state this blue, moderate candidates and establishment-friendly figures have struggled to generate real enthusiasm.

“It appears to be Xavier Becerra will take the top slot,” Thomas said. “And it appears that Steve Hilton will get into a second place.” He added that one of the more revealing dynamics in the race was that “moderate Democrats have no appeal in a state like California.”

Thomas argued that Hilton’s relative strength reflected a fairly straightforward political reality: Republicans were coalescing around a single Trump-endorsed candidate, while Democrats remained more divided and less inspired than they might have been under stronger circumstances. Even so, he cautioned that a November path for Hilton would remain difficult in a state as partisan as California unless a major outside event — particularly involving Becerra — disrupted the expected dynamic.

“I struggle to see a pathway simply because states like California are so hyper partisan and the numbers aren’t really there for a Republican,” Thomas said. But he noted that Hilton was running better with independents and added that “if that happens, all bets are off” if Becerra were caught up in some kind of Department of Justice issue.

The conversation then turned to Los Angeles, where Thomas said Karen Bass remained badly weakened for an incumbent and vulnerable in ways that would normally be far more dangerous. Yet he also suggested that the city’s political mechanics still made it difficult to see a clear path for challenger Spencer Pratt, even after what Thomas described as a stronger-than-expected campaign.

“It appears to be obviously Karen Bass,” Thomas said, “although amazingly, I mean, she is so badly damaged and weakened for an incumbent.” On Pratt, he added, “He’s really captured what I would say… is the most valuable thing in politics, which is he’s authentic and he’s credible.”

Thomas credited Pratt with building a candidacy around something rare in modern politics — real emotional credibility rooted in lived experience. In his view, Pratt’s ability to channel anger over Los Angeles’ failures, particularly after the destruction of his home, had given him a level of authenticity that many conventional candidates never manage to reach. But Thomas also made clear that authenticity alone may not be enough to overcome the structural partisanship of Los Angeles in a one-on-one contest.

The broader picture Thomas described was one of a state moving into election night with very little genuine confidence in its options. In the governor’s race, Democrats appeared to be consolidating more out of necessity than enthusiasm. In Los Angeles, a politically damaged incumbent still looked viable because the city’s partisan dynamics remain so difficult for any Republican challenger to overcome.

Taken together, Thomas’s comments pointed to a recurring theme in California politics right now: weak institutions, underwhelming candidates, and electorates that seem increasingly dissatisfied even when the likely outcomes remain familiar.

The segment originally aired on The John Phillips Show on June 3, 2026. You can listen to it here.

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