Washington, D.C., May 23, 2026 — During an interview on The John Phillips Show, Nestpoint Managing Director John Thomas offered a sharp assessment of California’s governor’s race, arguing that the Democratic field reflects not strength, but a party increasingly willing to settle for the least bad option. In Thomas’s view, the race is exposing a deeper problem inside California Democrats: even in one of the bluest states in the country, they are struggling to produce candidates who are both viable and credible.
Thomas began by pointing to the party’s recent pattern of backing flawed candidates without fully reckoning with the risks.
“The fact that in a state as deeply blue as California that candidates like Swalwell and Javier Becerra are the best they have to offer is really quite pathetic and shocking,” Thomas said.
He went on to argue that this is not an isolated development. Rather, it reflects a broader Democratic pattern in which identity politics and establishment reflexes often override more serious evaluation of competence, coalition-building, and political durability.
Thomas also suggested that Xavier Becerra’s emergence says as much about the party’s discomfort with the alternatives as it does about his own strength. In his view, Democratic elites were not necessarily rallying behind Becerra because they were enthusiastic about him, but because they wanted to avoid other candidates they distrusted even more.
“Xavier may be a bad governor, an ineffective governor,” Thomas said, “but the establishment hates Katie Porter. They can’t stand to be in a room with Katie Porter. They would take somebody who’s incompetent over her any day of the week.”
That point led to another broader theme in the conversation, namely the Democratic electorate’s apparent rejection of moderation. Asked about San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, Thomas said the most underappreciated story in the race is how little interest there has been in a candidate who, by conventional standards, should have had broader appeal.
“Moderate Democrats are completely rejected by both the establishment and the electorate in blue states like California,” Thomas said. “Intensity in these races is generated with Democrats at the extreme. Who is the most anti-Trump? Who is the most woke?”
He argued that this dynamic may extend well beyond California’s gubernatorial contest and could foreshadow what Democratic primaries look like nationally in the years ahead. In that environment, candidates who seem electable on paper may still fail if they cannot generate the emotional and ideological intensity the base now rewards.
Thomas also addressed the limits of wealth and advertising in a race like this. On Tom Steyer, he argued that the self-funding strategy had already hit a saturation point, where each additional dollar spent was reinforcing rather than solving the candidate’s core weakness.
“He’s reached saturation point where his advertising really has marginal utility for each dollar that he spends,” Thomas said, adding that every ad reminding voters it was “paid for by Tom Steyer” only deepened Democratic skepticism toward rich candidates.
The same concern appeared in his comments about Rick Caruso, whose political instincts Thomas described as increasingly muddled. Rather than emerging as a serious elder voice after declining to run, Caruso, in Thomas’s view, has squandered influence by backing losing plays and staying silent where his support might have mattered more.
Taken together, Thomas described a Democratic field that is not coalescing around strength so much as retreating toward the least disruptive available choice. That may still be enough to avoid a lockout in November. But his analysis also pointed to something deeper inside the party. Moderates are failing to inspire, wealthy outsiders are failing to connect, and establishment consolidation is being driven more by fear of the alternatives than confidence in the nominee.
The segment originally aired on The John Phillips Show on May 23, 2026. You can listen to it here.
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